The numbers behind 'Should I move cities?' — a LifeOdds test post
We modelled a city-move decision with 1,000 simulated futures. The move won 57% — but the social rebuild cost was the variable that actually drove the result.
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The One Who Closed It
The United States commands the Gulf and cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It can strike Iran daily, blockade its ports and sail warships beside the tankers, and the ships still will not go, because whether a captain sails is a judgement about danger and not about the navy at his side. Closing the
The Regret Test Is Not a Decision Tool
The regret minimization framework sounds rigorous. It isn’t. Here’s why imagining yourself at 80 is not a substitute for calculating expected value.
The Guardian's Cut
For a month Washington told the world that no nation may charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The week its war with Iran reopened, it named itself the strait's Guardian and claimed a fifth of every cargo crossing the water. The toll lasted days before Washington let it lapse, and the lap
The Siege That Picks a Side
A naval blockade is a blunt object, and it does not choose a target inside the government it squeezes. Yet the siege Washington restarts against Iran this week did exactly that the last time it ran, and the faction it strengthened is the one now left holding a failed deal. The blockade produced June